Investigation of Urban Flooding using the National Water Model in Southeast Virginia

Track 3A: Forecasting Droughts and Floods
Thursday, October 12, 2017, 3:40 pm – 5:10 pm

Prasanth Valayamkunnath and Venkat Sridhar
Department of Biological Systems Engineering
Virginia Tech

Flood is the most recurring and devastating natural hazards, impacting upon human lives and causing severe economic damage throughout the world. Virginia Beach and Hampton roads region are vulnerable to frequent flooding due to heavy rainfall and sea level rise. The study will investigate the accuracy of spatiotemporal characteristics of streamflow and the extent of urban flooding simulated by National Water Model (NWM) framework for coastal Virginia. We will evaluate short-term precipitation forecast at high resolution using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) of high-resolution radar radial velocity and reflectivity products from NEXRAD, and in-situ data. This improved precipitation forecasts will be used to compute flooding potential using exceedance probabilities. The results of this study will be beneficial to delineate flood-prone areas so that managers and public are better prepared for anticipating and protecting the infrastructure and property.